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          Commentary: England has route to the final, but past should warn against overconfidence

          Source: Xinhua| 2018-06-30 20:22:45|Editor: Li Xia
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          By Paul Giblin

          MOSCOW, June 30 (Xinhua) -- The decision taken by England coach Gareth Southgate to rest nearly all of his regular starting 11 for the final Group G game which they lost 1-0 to Belgium on Thursday has been the subject of much debate over whether it was the right thing to do, with some arguing it took away the momentum England had gathered following their record 6-1 win over Panama and others saying it allowed key players to rest, avoided the risk of yellow cards and has given England an easier route to a possible place in the final.

          Everyone involved seems to forget that Belgium also rested nearly all of their regular starters, and playing a full side would not have automatically guaranteed an England victory in Kaliningrad, but there is another factor everyone seems to miss: England's dreadful record in the knockout stages in recent major tournaments.

          The last time England won a game in the knockout stage in a major international football tournament was in 2006, when they defeated Ecuador 1-0 thanks to a David Beckham goal to book a quarterfinal place against Portugal.

          That game would see Wayne Rooney sent off and a brave rear-guard action end in the inevitability of a penalty shoot-out defeat, and disappointing as it was, that is the high-point of the last 12 years.

          England failed to even qualify for the 2008 European Championships as Steve McClaren stood forlornly in the rain while they were knocked out of the qualifying stages by Croatia, and although they qualified for South Africa in 2010 a poor group stage saw them face Germany, who beat them 4-1 in the last 16.

          That game was surrounded in controversy as a shot by Frank Lampard clearly crossed the goal-line and would have made the score 2-2, but it was before the days of VAR and goal-line technology, so home England went.

          The 2012 European Championship saw England meet Italy in the quarterfinals after the group stage, and another defeat on penalties after 120 minutes failed to produce a goal, while the 2014 World Cup in Brazil was over almost as soon as it began, as defeats to Italy and Uruguay rendered their last game (a 0-0 draw against Costa Rica) irrelevant.

          There were high hopes in the 2016 European Championships when England faced Iceland in the last 16 of an expanded tournament, but what followed was the greatest moment in Icelandic football history (and arguably the worst in England) as they lost 2-1 to a nation of 334,000 inhabitants.

          So although the debate still rages over whether it would been better for England to play Japan and then possibly Brazil in the last 8, or to face Colombia (which they will do) before a quarterfinal against Sweden or Switzerland, England fans should just draw a deep breathe and have a look at the last 12 years.

          It's true that Southgate appears to have changed the mentality of his players, but if there is one thing their supporters should have learned by now, it is to look too far into the future.

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