Brazil's financial market lowers 2026 inflation forecast to 4 pct

BRASILIA, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) -- Brazil's financial market has lowered its inflation forecast for 2026 from 4.02 percent to 4 percent but maintained its 2027 forecast at 3.80 percent, the Central Bank of Brazil said Monday.

According to the bank's weekly Focus survey of Brazil's leading financial institutions, analysts' expectations remain within the official target range of 3 percent, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points.

Analysts predict that the benchmark Selic interest rate, currently at 15 percent annually, will drop to 12.25 percent by the end of 2026 and further down to 10.50 percent by 2027.

Meanwhile, the GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.80 percent for both 2026 and 2027.

In the currency market, the Brazilian real is currently trading at an average of 5.38 to the U.S. dollar. Forecasters expect it to weaken slightly to 5.50 by the end of 2026 and 5.51 by the end of 2027.

The trade balance is projected to show a surplus of 67.65 billion U.S. dollars by the end of this year and 71.55 billion dollars next year.

Foreign direct investment in Brazil is expected to reach 74.85 billion dollars in 2026 and 78.50 billion dollars in 2027. ■